Concept work · prepared for Grand Canyon Education · June 2026

You spend $212M a year against five mega-competitors. The hard part isn't optimizing the spend; it's proving which of it bought Starts.

Three working tools, built only on your public numbers, give a first independent cut at that proof: a cited trail of why each dollar should move, of the kind a 200-person in-house team can't grade for itself.

The need, then the wedge

GCE isn't a school; it's the engine that runs marketing, lead-gen, and enrollment counseling for GCU and 21 other partners, in return for 60% of GCU's tuition. So your P&L is an enrollment-marketing P&L: of $1.033B in FY2024 service revenue, $212.4M is marketing and $323.5M is counseling, together about 52% of revenue, all chasing Starts against WGU, SNHU, Phoenix, Liberty, and ASU Online, every one of them bidding the same keywords. The structural leak is well-known and your team probably already half-fixes it: channel managers optimize the metric that reports fastest (cost-per-Inquiry) while the P&L is scored on the one that pays (cost-per-Start).

Why hire anyone for this: the honest version

The optimizer that swaps cost-per-Inquiry for cost-per-Start is a linprog call your analytics team could write by Friday. I'll show it to you anyway (prototype 01), but I won't pretend it's the moat. The moat is independence: the team that built the cost-per-Inquiry buy can't credibly certify it isn't cost-per-Start-pessimal. That's grading your own homework, and no amount of in-house talent fixes a conflict of interest.

And you're in active FTC discovery over how you market. In that weather, an independent, every-input-cited record of why each dollar moved isn't overhead; it's an evidentiary asset an internal memo structurally isn't. That's the thing worth paying an outsider for. The optimizer just proves the cheap half is real so you'll believe the expensive half.

$535.9M
Marketing + counseling: the funnel a digital-marketing leader touches (FY2024 10-K)
Dec 2023
FTC suit over deceptive marketing; partial dismissal denied Aug 2024; discovery ongoing
79%
GCU students enrolled exclusively online (IPEDS Fall 2024, UnitID 104717)
The three tools
Prototype 01 · The objective swap

The cost-per-Start optimizer

The question it answers: at the same budget, how much cost-per-Start are you handing back by optimizing the metric that reports fastest?

  • Split a quarter of the real $212.4M line across channels under per-vendor ceilings (the "boast") and a hard cap (the "bound")
  • Flip the objective from cost-per-Inquiry to cost-per-Start and watch the plan (and the money) move
  • Honest about its bound: no multi-touch attribution, no brand-halo; the −74%-to-TV anecdote is in the box as a cautionary tale
Open the optimizer →/cost-per-start
Prototype 02 · The moat

The spend-decision trail

The question it answers: which of your spend justifications survive an outside examiner asking "why did budget move there?", and which collapse to "the team felt"?

  • A quarter of spend moves, each rebuilt from a citation an outsider can check, or flagged when it can't
  • An examiner's walk: the doctoral-cost row maps straight to the real $37M ED fine, the TV row has no incrementality test on file
  • The artifact that leaves the building: a cited, reproducible record, built while you still can
Open the trail →/audit-trail
Prototype 03 · The sponsor's view

EBITDA → enterprise value

The question it answers: is a CPS-honest funnel a one-time diligence check, or a line a sponsor can put in the value-creation bridge and report to LPs quarterly?

  • Sizes the saving against the combined $535.9M funnel, not just the smaller marketing line a sponsor would skip past
  • Separates the two underwritable claims: a recurring EBITDA contribution, and a variance-reduction story that turns the multiple
  • Cost-out vs. growth-efficiency as a lane you pick, because a sponsor needs to know which lever they're buying
Open the bridge →/ebitda-bridge
Why me, specifically

The method these tools run on, boast-and-bound, scoring on Starts not Inquiries, was born in your shop, on a 2012 GCU paid-media pilot, back when the seat now called Executive Director of Digital Marketing was paid lead generation. This is a relationship-led re-entry, not a cold vendor. And the independence that makes the audit trail worth paying for is the whole point: I didn't build your buy, so I can certify it.

Higher-ed lead-gen, from insideDirector of Solutions at Sparkroom: higher-ed marketing-budget SaaS. Closed and implemented $1.5M/yr net new; ran the boast-and-bound CPI-vs-CPS argument on this exact buy a decade before the market caught up. LeadsCon 2015 presenter.
Media analytics at scaleSenior DS at Meta: privacy & trust-evaluation infrastructure for LLM training data, the discipline that makes an AI-assisted recommendation survive an auditor's question. Led a 10-person analytics team; growth, forecasting, experimentation on billion-user surfaces.
ML media allocationBlue Camel Consulting: built an ML media-allocation solution across institutions managing $2.5M+/month media spend; ~10% ROI lift in a quarter, ~0.5 FTE/month of effort removed. The reference implementation behind prototype 01 is on GitHub.
Independence by constructionA solo specialist with no agency account-conflict and no stake in the buy being right. The reason the audit trail carries weight is the reason you'd hire it out: I have nothing to certify except the record.
The engagement shape

A one-time diagnostic, never a recurring SaaS license. Fixed scope, IP transfers to your team, no data leaves the building for the public-data phase. Scored the way your CFO already scores cost programs.

Diagnostic: CPI-vs-CPS gap on your 10-K line + IPEDS funnel, the working optimizer, a data-readiness read, and the cited-decision-trail template$50-75k
+ Internal extension: your per-vendor numbers, CPS-honesty validation, the independent audit of the live buy, the cited trail populatedto ~$150k

Fixed-scope, 4-6 weeks; indicative ranges, final scope set after a 30-minute call. A one-time diagnostic with IP transfer. The year-one ceiling is ~$150k, not a recurring license. If the CPS gap isn't there in your shop, you don't pay for the extension.

The tools are the pitch.

Public 10-K / IPEDS / FTC anchors throughout; per-vendor spend figures are synthetic, calibrated to cited public ranges and labeled in every tool's "Sources & method." Independent concept work, not affiliated with Grand Canyon Education. If any of these is worth a real conversation, I'd love to have it.